Write the date, stakes, options considered, constraints, and emotional state in calm, specific language. Avoid heroic narratives or fatalism; both distort future analysis. Note what data you have, what you lacked, and deadlines shaping the choice. When you later review, this context lets you assess reasoning under pressure, not just the outcome’s shine or sting.
Translate intuition into testable statements: If X, then Y within Z timeframe. Assign probabilities, even rough ones, and explain why. Cite base rates if available. This pushes you beyond vibes and toward measurable judgments. During review, compare forecasts to reality and track calibration. Over time, your internal sense of likelihood grows humbler, sharper, and far more dependable.